WHICH AMERICANS?

Who is responsible for the ongoing armed conflicts that are pushing our world toward the threat of another major war? Who made the decision to initiate this war, which lacks support from any international institution? Are these the individuals we see in prominent roles, or are there “hidden” powers manipulating them behind the scenes?

In the U.S., who are the decision-makers and combatants involved in Israel’s attacks on Iran and Lebanon in response to the situation in Palestine? How do Americans of Iranian, Lebanese, and Palestinian descent perceive this issue? For example, what would happen if an American of Iranian descent were called upon to participate in a conflict against Iran? This raises questions about who qualifies as a “real” American and suggests that there is a larger project at play. One striking example of this is the photo of the “American” table tennis championship team at the last Olympics, which featured all team members of Chinese descent. (See attached photo.)

Such complex and uncertain developments are unfolding, making a logical interpretation nearly impossible.

Iran’s potential nuclear capability is often cited as the justification for an attack on the country. However, what do the actual statistics reveal? How does Iran rank among nations that possess nuclear warheads? According to published rankings, Russia has 5,899 nuclear warheads, the United States has 5,244, China has 410, France has 290, the United Kingdom has 225, Pakistan has 165, India has 164, Israel has 90, and North Korea has 50 nuclear warheads. So, what is the number of warheads mentioned as the reason for attacking Iran? Perhaps it’s just a few, or maybe none at all!

Let’s assume that Iran has a few nuclear warheads or the capability to produce them immediately. Based on this scenario, could it lead to war? Who has the authority to determine which country’s leadership displays more common sense? Moreover, how can we overlook the risk that the world could be drawn into a major conflict due to the actions of a volatile, mad leader?

The balance of power during the Cold War helped neutralize significant threats. However, we now observe that the decision to partition the global resources has replaced this balance. Soon, we will witness the downfall of a country in the Far East and the consolidation of 70% of the global chip market into the hands of a single nation.

Unfortunately, we are living in a time when the powerful can act with impunity—essentially, the law of the jungle prevails. Will this situation lead to a new world war? Perhaps, in the future, historians will refer to these times as the days of a new World War.

The world’s superpower has effectively signaled this shift by renaming its Ministry of Defense to the “Ministry of War.”

The current economic situation is unfortunately contributing to a climate of war. On one hand, capitalism is facing a significant crisis; on the other, there is a rising tide of nationalism in a world that is commercially, culturally, and socially interconnected. This suggests the possibility of a major war on the horizon.

Key factors include Trump’s new tariff policies, the dollar’s fluctuating dominance, a population that has reached unsustainable levels, the evolution of artificial intelligence, which is rendering many jobs and this population obsolete, and the rapidly widening income gap.

All of these factors are escalating tensions and contributing to a precarious situation. It is important to remember that the United States, being the world’s most indebted nation, cannot afford to see the U.S. dollar lose its status as the world’s reserve currency; this alone is a significant driver of conflict and a new big war.

It is a well-known fact that humanity, still not having reached full maturity, has always been prone to violence against one another, and they have a persistent tendency to kill each other. This instinct to kill has led to wars throughout history, including four “World Wars.” Yes, you read that correctly; I believe we are facing the threat of a “fourth” World War. Unfortunately, this threat is being constantly fueled—sometimes unconsciously, but often quite deliberately by certain key players.

The underlying causes of world wars appear to be quite similar. The First World War can be likened to the “Trojan War,” which occurred around 1170 BCE—approximately 3,200 years ago. At that time, during the height of the Bronze Age, the world’s commercial and political center was in Anatolia and its surroundings, which were home to the civilizations of Egypt, the Hittites, Ancient Greece, and Babylon, as well as the city-states of the Middle East.

The world was facing a crisis characterized by civil unrest driven by drought, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, economic collapse, and mass migration. The Dardanelles Strait was critical for trade, serving as a key route for the transport of bronze and tin—essential materials for weapon production—along with wheat, the most vital product during the drought era. Just as today, the Strait of Hormuz accounts for 20% of global oil transit, a similar proportion of global raw materials and wheat exports passed through the Dardanelles Strait.

Amid this economic turmoil, a world war became inevitable as various powers sought to control these vital trade routes. Following World War I, many empires and civilizations—most notably the Hittites—collapsed. This marked the beginning of a lengthy period of uncertainty, lasting approximately 400 years, during which writing was not used. This era is referred to in archaeology as the “Dark Ages.”

The so-called “First World War” (1914–1918) broke out for several economic reasons. Germany and Italy lagged behind Britain and France in economic growth, largely because of the wealth these countries had amassed through colonialism. Additionally, there was a desire to secure access to oil resources in the Middle East, which was then under Ottoman control. The monetary crisis known as the “Great Depression” at the beginning of the century also contributed to the tensions that led to the war.

The collapse of international trade following the Great Depression, which began in 1929, the sense of revenge stemming from the unacceptable terms of the Treaty of Versailles signed after World War I, and the rise of nationalist parties in response to perceived threats from communism all set the stage for a new world war in 1939. The Second World War (which I believe should actually be considered the Third) proved to be even more destructive.

Now, it can be argued that World War IV has already begun. In the future, historians may write that the Third (or, in my opinion, Fourth) World War began in 2022 with the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The true cause of all these wars lies in the character of humanity, which has not yet matured sufficiently. As one of the few species that kills its own kind without reason, humanity will continue to wage war until it completes its evolution. As a result, people will continue to harm each other, the environment, and even themselves. The “5th World War” may very well be fought with rudimentary weapons, such as stones and sticks, but this cycle of violence is likely to persist.

Moreover, the most dangerous individuals are those who can conceal their identities. A person who finds a way to hide can easily harm society for personal gain. This instinctual tendency to kill and destroy in human nature can be mitigated by laws and police measures or by the fear of social repercussions from friends and family. However, these measures do not apply to groups that can remain hidden and whose identities are unknown.

A.Refik Kutluer
Member of the International Federation of
Tourism Journalists and Writers (FIJET)